Kokotajlo, Alexander, Lifland, Larsen, et al.
A concrete near-term scenario that can be checked month by month as the decade unfolds.
This source has not been fully researched yet.
Target date
2027
Scoring lens
Blended score
TBD
Capability score
TBD
Deployment score
TBD
The blended score is our overall estimate for the full prediction. The capability score asks, 'Could the technology exist by then?' The deployment score asks, 'Will it be widely used and visible in the real world by then?' For this prediction, the technology may arrive before the world is ready to deploy it safely or broadly.
Overview
AI 2027 turns fast-timeline arguments into a narrative forecast with visible milestones and decision points.
The big prediction
Transformative AI progress becomes acute by 2027 under a detailed scenario timeline.
Evidence for
This source has not been fully researched yet.
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