Ajeya Cotra
A technical timeline model that converts compute assumptions into forecastable milestones.
This source has not been fully researched yet.
Target date
2050
Scoring lens
Blended score
TBD
Capability score
TBD
Deployment score
TBD
The blended score is our overall estimate for the full prediction. The capability score asks, 'Could the technology exist by then?' The deployment score asks, 'Will it be widely used and visible in the real world by then?' For this prediction, the technology may arrive before the world is ready to deploy it safely or broadly.
Overview
Cotra's report estimates transformative AI timelines by comparing AI training requirements to biological computation anchors.
The big prediction
Biological anchor methods imply material probability of transformative AI this century, with significant probability before mid-century.
Evidence for
This source has not been fully researched yet.
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