Gary Marcus
A persistent skeptic to compare against fast-timeline scaling arguments.
This source has not been fully researched yet.
Target date
No specific date
Scoring lens
Blended score
TBD
Capability score
TBD
Deployment score
TBD
The blended score is our overall estimate for the full prediction. The capability score asks, 'Could the technology exist by then?' The deployment score asks, 'Will it be widely used and visible in the real world by then?' For this prediction, the technology may arrive before the world is ready to deploy it safely or broadly.
Overview
Marcus argues that present systems lack key ingredients for reliable reasoning and that AGI forecasts often overread benchmark progress.
The big prediction
Current scaling approaches are unlikely to produce robust AGI on the aggressive timelines often claimed.
Evidence for
This source has not been fully researched yet.
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