Holden Karnofsky
A careful argument for why AI timelines should reshape priorities even under uncertainty.
This source has not been fully researched yet.
Target date
2100
Scoring lens
Blended score
TBD
Capability score
TBD
Deployment score
TBD
The blended score is our overall estimate for the full prediction. The capability score asks, 'Could the technology exist by then?' The deployment score asks, 'Will it be widely used and visible in the real world by then?' For this prediction, the technology may arrive before the world is ready to deploy it safely or broadly.
Overview
Karnofsky argues that the long-run stakes and plausible timing of transformative AI make this century unusually consequential.
The big prediction
This century could plausibly be the most important in history because of transformative AI.
Evidence for
This source has not been fully researched yet.
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