Katja Grace / AI Impacts
A survey-based counterweight to individual AI timeline narratives.
This source has not been fully researched yet.
Target date
No specific date
Scoring lens
Blended score
TBD
Capability score
TBD
Deployment score
TBD
The blended score is our overall estimate for the full prediction. The capability score asks, 'Could the technology exist by then?' The deployment score asks, 'Will it be widely used and visible in the real world by then?' For this prediction, the technology may arrive before the world is ready to deploy it safely or broadly.
Overview
AI Impacts has run and analyzed expert surveys about AI timelines, risks, and expected impacts.
The big prediction
AI expert surveys estimate when high-level machine intelligence and related milestones may arrive.
Evidence for
This source has not been fully researched yet.
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