Metaculus
A live crowd-sourced prediction baseline for comparing named futurist claims.
This source has not been fully researched yet.
Target date
No specific date
Scoring lens
Blended score
TBD
Capability score
TBD
Deployment score
TBD
The blended score is our overall estimate for the full prediction. The capability score asks, 'Could the technology exist by then?' The deployment score asks, 'Will it be widely used and visible in the real world by then?' For this prediction, the technology may arrive before the world is ready to deploy it safely or broadly.
Overview
Metaculus aggregates probabilistic forecasts from a large forecasting community across many AI milestone questions.
The big prediction
Community forecasts provide question-specific probabilities for AI capabilities, impacts, and dates.
Evidence for
This source has not been fully researched yet.
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