Nick Bostrom
The foundational modern argument for why superintelligence could be uniquely dangerous.
This source has not been fully researched yet.
Target date
No specific date
Scoring lens
Blended score
TBD
Capability score
TBD
Deployment score
TBD
The blended score is our overall estimate for the full prediction. The capability score asks, 'Could the technology exist by then?' The deployment score asks, 'Will it be widely used and visible in the real world by then?' For this prediction, the technology may arrive before the world is ready to deploy it safely or broadly.
Overview
Bostrom's book popularized core arguments about intelligence explosion, orthogonality, instrumental convergence, and alignment risk.
The big prediction
Once machine intelligence reaches human level, a rapid transition to superintelligence could create extreme control problems.
Evidence for
This source has not been fully researched yet.
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