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Prediction Scorecards

Rodney Brooks

A rare public forecaster who keeps score against his own dated AI and robotics predictions.

Current verdict

This source has not been fully researched yet.

Target date

No specific date

Scoring lens

Blended score

TBD

Capability score

TBD

Deployment score

TBD

The blended score is our overall estimate for the full prediction. The capability score asks, 'Could the technology exist by then?' The deployment score asks, 'Will it be widely used and visible in the real world by then?' For this prediction, the technology may arrive before the world is ready to deploy it safely or broadly.

Overview

What this source is arguing

Brooks publishes prediction scorecards that test claims about robotics, autonomous vehicles, AI, space, and other technologies.

The big prediction

The core claim to test

Many public AI and robotics forecasts are too aggressive and should be checked against dated scorecards.

Evidence for

Why the prediction might be right

This source has not been fully researched yet.

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