Vernor Vinge
The classic singularity forecast, now available for retrospective scoring.
This source has not been fully researched yet.
Target date
2023
Scoring lens
Blended score
TBD
Capability score
TBD
Deployment score
TBD
The blended score is our overall estimate for the full prediction. The capability score asks, 'Could the technology exist by then?' The deployment score asks, 'Will it be widely used and visible in the real world by then?' For this prediction, the technology may arrive before the world is ready to deploy it safely or broadly.
Overview
Vinge's essay framed superhuman intelligence as a historical discontinuity that would make the post-singularity world hard to predict.
The big prediction
The technological singularity may occur within roughly 30 years of the original 1993 essay.
Evidence for
This source has not been fully researched yet.
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