Alexander Wissner-Gross & Peter Diamandis
A maximalist abundance thesis to track against measurable progress in hard domains.
This source has not been fully researched yet.
Target date
2035
Scoring lens
Blended score
30%
Capability score
55%
Deployment score
25%
The blended score is our overall estimate for the full prediction. The capability score asks, 'Could the technology exist by then?' The deployment score asks, 'Will it be widely used and visible in the real world by then?' For this prediction, the technology may arrive before the world is ready to deploy it safely or broadly.
Exponential lens
Capability can compound quickly. Deployment usually moves slower.
If AI becomes a general-purpose invention engine, progress in software, science, medicine, energy, and education could feed back into itself and accelerate across domains.
Physical-world constraints, regulation, institutional adoption, capital formation, safety requirements, and uneven access can slow abundance even when models improve quickly.
Overview
This source frames AI as a general-purpose accelerator for solving humanity's largest constraints.
The big prediction
AI unlocks compounding breakthroughs across scarcity, health, energy, and education.
Evidence for
This source has not been fully researched yet.
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