Eliezer Yudkowsky & Nate Soares
The strongest public doom case, tracked as a conditional prediction rather than a dated timeline.
This source has not been fully researched yet.
Target date
No specific date
Scoring lens
Blended score
TBD
Capability score
TBD
Deployment score
TBD
The blended score is our overall estimate for the full prediction. The capability score asks, 'Could the technology exist by then?' The deployment score asks, 'Will it be widely used and visible in the real world by then?' For this prediction, the technology may arrive before the world is ready to deploy it safely or broadly.
Overview
Yudkowsky and Soares argue that current AI development paths are likely to produce systems humanity cannot control.
The big prediction
Building sufficiently advanced unaligned AI would be catastrophic, regardless of which actor builds it.
Evidence for
This source has not been fully researched yet.
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